Magic; Stage Illusions and Scientific Diversions, Including Trick Photography (1897), written by Albert Allis Hopkins and Henry Ridgely Evan.
As the dust settles in the process of reform of UK public procurement rules, and while we await for draft legislation to be published (some time this year?), there is now a chance to further reflect on the likely effects of the deregulatory, flexibility- and discretion-based approach to be embedded in the new UK procurement system.
An issue that may not have been sufficiently highlighted, but which should be of concern, is the way in which increased flexibility and discretion will unavoidably carry higher corruption risks and reduce the effectiveness of potential anti-corruption tools, in particular those based on the implementation of digital technologies for procurement oversight [see A Sanchez-Graells, ‘Procurement Corruption and Artificial Intelligence: Between the Potential of Enabling Data Architectures and the Constraints of Due Process Requirements’ in S Williams-Elegbe & J Tillipman (eds), Routledge Handbook of Public Procurement Corruption (Routledge, forthcoming)].
This is an inescapable issue, for there is an unavoidable trade-off between flexibility, discretion and corruption (in procurement, and more generally). And this does not bode well for the future of UK procurement integrity if the experience during the pandemic is a good predictor.
The trade-off between flexibility, discretion and corruption underpins many features of procurement regulation, such as the traditional distrust of procedures involving negotiations or direct awards, which may however stifle procurement innovation and limit value for money [see eg F Decarolis et al, ‘Rules, Discretion, and Corruption in Procurement: Evidence from Italian Government Contracting’ (2021) NBER Working Paper 28209].
The trade-off also underpins many of the anti-corruption tools (eg red flags) that use discretionary elements in procurement practice as a potential proxy for corruption risk [see eg M Fazekas, L Cingolani and B Tóth, ‘Innovations in Objectively Measuring Corruption in Public Procurement’ in H K Anheier, M Haber and M A Kayser (eds) Governance Indicators: Approaches, Progress, Promise (OUP 2018) 154-180; or M Fazekas, S Nishchal and T Søreide, ‘Public procurement under and after emergencies’ in O Bandiera, E Bosio and G Spagnolo (eds), Procurement in Focus – Rules, Discretion, and Emergencies (CEPR Press 2022) 33-42].
Moreover, economists and political scientists have clearly stressed that one way of trying to strike an adequate balance between the exercise of discretion and corruption risks, without disproportionately deterring the exercise of judgement or fostering laziness or incompetence in procurement administration, is to increase oversight and monitoring, especially through auditing mechanisms based on open data (see eg Procurement in a crisis: how to mitigate the risk of corruption, collusion, abuse and incompetence).
The difficulty here is that the trade-off is inescapable and the more dimensions on which there is flexibility and discretion in a procurement system, the more difficult it will be to establish a ‘normalcy benchmark’ or ‘integrity benchmark’ from which deviations can trigger close inspection. Taking into account that there is a clear trend towards seeking to automate integrity checks on the basis of big data and machine learning techniques, this is a particularly crucial issue. In my view, there are two main sources of difficulties and limitations.
First, that discretion is impossible to code for [see S Bratus and A Shubina, Computerization, Discretion, Freedom (2015)]. This both means that discretionary decisions cannot be automated, and that it is impossible to embed compliance mechanisms (eg through the definition of clear pathways based on business process modelling within an e-procurement system, or even in blockchain and smart contract approaches: Neural blockchain technology for a new anticorruption token: towards a novel governance model) where there is the possibility of a ‘discretion override’.
The more points along the procurement process where discretion can be exercised (eg choice of procedure, design of procedure, award criteria including weakening of link to subject matter of the contract and inclusion of non(easily)measurable criteria eg on social value, displacement of advantage analysis beyond sphere of influence of contracting authority, etc) the more this difficulty matters.
Second, the more deviations there are between the new rulebook and the older one, the lower the value of existing (big) data (if any is available or useable) and of any indicators of corruption risk, as the regulatory confines of the exercise of discretion will not only have shifted, but perhaps even lead to a displacement of corruption-related exercise of discretion. For example, focusing on the choice of procedure, data on the extent to which direct awards could be a proxy for corruption may be useless in a new context where that type of corruption can morph into ‘custom-made’ design of a competitive flexible procedure—which will be both much more difficult to spot, analyse and prove.
Moreover, given the inherent fluidity of that procedure (even if there is to be a template, which is however not meant to be uncritically implemented), it will take time to build up enough data to be able to single out specific characteristics of the procedure (eg carrying out negotiations with different bidders in different ways, such as sequentially or in parallel, with or without time limits, the inclusion of any specific award criterion, etc) that can be indicative of corruption risk reliably. And that intelligence may not be forthcoming if, as feared, the level of complexity that comes with the exercise of discretion deters most contracting authorities from exercising it, which would mean that only a small number of complex procedures would be carried out every year, potentially hindering the accumulation of data capable of supporting big data analysis (or even meaningful econometrical treatment).
Overall, then, the issue I would highlight again is that there is an unavoidable trade-off between increasing flexibility and discretion, and corruption risk. And this trade-off will jeopardise automation and data-based approaches to procurement monitoring and oversight. This will be particularly relevant in the context of the design and implementation of the tools at the disposal of the proposed Procurement Review Unit (PRU). The Response to the public consultation on the Transforming Public Procurement green paper emphasised that
‘… the PRU’s main focus will be on addressing systemic or institutional breaches of the procurement regulations (i.e. breaches common across contracting authorities or regularly being made by a particular contracting authority). To deliver this service, it will primarily act on the basis of referrals from other government departments or data available from the new digital platform and will have the power to make formal recommendations aimed at addressing these unlawful breaches’ (para [48]).
Given the issues raised above, and in particular the difficulty or impossibility of automating the analysis of such data, as well as the limited indicative value and/or difficulty of creating reliable red flags in a context of heightened flexibility and discretion, quite how effective this will be is difficult to tell.
Moreover, given the floating uncertainty on what will be identified as suspicious of corruption (or legal infringement), it is also possible that the PRU (initially) operates on the basis of indicators or thresholds arbitrarily determined (much like the European Commission has traditionally arbitrarily set thresholds to consider procurement practices problematic under the Single Market Scorecard; see eg here). This could have a signalling effect that could influence decision-making at contracting authority level (eg to avoid triggering those red flags) in a way that pre-empts, limits or distorts the exercise of discretion—or that further displaces corruption-related exercise of discretion to areas not caught by the arbitrary indicators or thresholds, thus making it more difficult to detect.
Therefore, these issues can be particularly relevant in establishing both whether the balance between discretion and corruption risk is right under the new rulebook’s regulatory architecture and approach, as well as whether there are non-statutory determinants of the (lack of) exercise of discretion, other than the complexity and potential litigation and challenge risk already stressed in earlier analysis and reflections on the green paper.
Another ‘interesting’ area of development of UK procurement law and practice post-Brexit when/if it materialises.